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2013-01-30
MLB: Giants, Pads and Braves eye two playoff spots
2010-10-02
With their sweep of the Arizona D-Backs, the San Francisco Giants now have a three game lead in the NL West on the San Diego Padre Programa Descuentos Deportivos s. Coincidentally enough, the Giants host the Pads for a three game series starting tonight. Sportsbook.com currently has the Giants as -155 favorites to win tonight.
The Giants need to win just one game to clinch the division. San Diego dropped three-of-four to the Cubs to find itself in this precarious position. The Padres are two games back of Atlanta for the Wild Card. The Braves close out the year with a three-game series against NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field.
It’s been seven years since the Giants have won the NL West and they hope to clinch Friday night when they send Matt Cain (13-10, 2.95 ERA) to the mound against Clayton Richard (13-9, 3.71 ERA). Cain has been phenomenal lately with a 2-0 record and a 0.82 ERA over his past three starts. It’s been the complete opposite for Richard, who is just 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA over his last three outings. No wonder 73% of Sportsbook.com’s bettors are on the Giants tonight.
The Padres have gotten the better of San Francisco so far this season, going 10-5 against the Giants including a 5-1 mark at AT&T Park. These teams usually combine for low-scoring affairs as the under has cashed in 10 of their meetings so far this year. Tim Stauffer (5-5, 1.89 ERA) gets the call for the Padres on Saturday against Barry Zito (9-13, 4.08 ERA), while Mat Latos (14-9, 2.82 ERA) and Jonathan Sanchez (12-9, 3.15 ERA) are scheduled to close out the year on Sunday.
The following baseball betting trends support a Giants NL West clinch tonight:
SAN FRANCISCO is 44-24 (+16.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.7, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-9 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of its save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.0, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 2*) .
SAN FRANCISCO is 50-30 (+17.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*) .
Meanwhile, over in the East, the Braves look to shore up the Wild Card with Brandon Beachy (0-1, 2.89 ERA) on the mound Friday night. He’ll be opposed by Kyle Kendrick (10-10, 4.76 ERA) for Philadelphia. The Braves have a two-game lead on the Padres and Atlanta’s magic number to clinch the Wild Card is two. Sportsbook.com has the Braves at -155 chalk.
Philadelphia has already locked up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Atlanta enters the series after sweeping the Marlins in a three-game set. Philadelphia comes in after taking two-of-three from the Nationals. The Phillies lead the season series over the Braves 8-7. Atlanta has won four of the six games played at Turner Field this year. Saturday’s probable starters are Cole Hamels (12-11, 3.09 ERA) and Tommy Hanson (10-11, 3.41 ERA). Vance Worley (1-1, 2.25 ERA) and Tim Hudson (16-9, 2.76 ERA) are scheduled to go on Sunday.
Considering that Philly has little to play for in addition to the following MLB betting trends, Sportsbook.com is expecting bettors to back the Braves all weekend long.
ATLANTA is 54-23 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.8, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*).
ATLANTA is 14-3 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.9, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 1*) .
ATLANTA is 56-24 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.8, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).
MLB: Handicapping deck stacked against Boston?
2010-07-05
The Red Sox and Rays are both nipping at the heels of the A.L. East-leading Yankees, each within 2-games of the top spot. Boston currently leads the wildcard race by a half-game. It goes without saying that the teams will open a meaningful series on Monday night at 7:10 PM ET in Tampa. The Rays are -140 favorites according to Sportsbook.com but that could end up being much higher when bettors get their hands on some powerful systems and trends backing the hosts.
One of the first things I like to consider is the status of the bullpens. We all know that betting lines are predicated first and foremost on starting pitching. It is for that reason that line value can be pulled from less obvious factors. Note that despite the 5-2 record in their last seven games, the Red Sox bullpen has been awful during the stretch, with an ERA of 8.15. At the same time, the Rays are only 4-3 in their L7 games, but their relief staff has been stellar, with a 0.962 WHIP during the stretch. That difference sets up for a very strong system for tonight:
• Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (BOSTON) - with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games. (69-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.9%, +34.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The other thing that stands out to me is the drastic differential in home/road dichotomy between these teams. In fact, there are two angles so powerful on each side of the coin that there seems to be only one way to bet tonight’s game. Take a look.
• BOSTON was 3-17 (-15.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of last season. The average score was BOSTON 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TAMPA BAY is 46-20 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
That first angle is actually quite shocking. With Boston having played its 82nd game yesterday, we are now officially into the second half of the season. Unless something changes in 2010, this angle could have a profound effect on Boston’s playoff chances. The Sox face potentially 11 different series’ the rest of the way against winning teams on the road, including two each at both Tampa and New York.
Tampa Bay is convinced the recent swoon is finally behind them. The Rays, who struggled for more than a month after racing to a 32-12 start, enters this seven-game homestand on an upswing after taking three of four from Minnesota, capped by Sunday's 7-4 victory.
Boston, which begins a six-game road swing with this contest, was denied a sweep of last-place Baltimore on Sunday with a 6-1 defeat.
Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (5-3, 4.50 ERA) gets his second crack at Matt Garza (9-5, 4.08) and the Rays in five days. The right-hander has struggled with his control since coming off the disabled list due to a strained forearm, walking eight in 11 innings over two starts.
He lasted six innings versus Garza on Wednesday, giving up three runs and four hits with four walks in a 9-4 defeat. Matsuzaka is 2-5 with a 4.10 ERA in 10 starts against the Rays, but did get a victory in his most recent outing at Tampa Bay in 2008.
Garza appears to be finding his groove as he tries to become Tampa Bay's second 10-game winner along with David Price. He yielded three runs in seven-plus innings against the Red Sox for his fourth win in five starts.
The right-hander is 2-1 in three starts versus Boston this season, with the loss coming at home May 26. Garza is 7-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.
The StatFox Power Line indicates that the Rays are slightly overpriced, indicating that they should be a favorite of only -124.
MLB: Interleague Weekend Matchups & Trends 5/21-5/23
2010-05-21
It was 1997 when Interleague play began in Major League Baseball. Game traditionalists still bristle when they hear the term, but you have to give credit to commissioner Bud Selig for leading the noteworthy change. While the A.L. continues to seemingly pound its N.L. counterpart year-after year, the break in the regular monotony of the schedule is always much anticipated. Besides that, most of the Interleague matchups are of the regional rivalry variety, spicing up the game that much more in the months of May & June. Well, the first set of Interleague games is on tap for this weekend. Let’s take a look at a top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series that you’ll want to consider in your weekend wagering.
In the previous 13 seasons, the AL has won the season series nine times compared to four for the NL and those from the junior circuit have won the last six in a row, proving their dominance.
The National League actually narrowed the gap last season with 114-138 record, which was better than 2008 when they were 103-149. Where everyone started to take notice of the disparity between the two leagues was 2006. After the AL had won the two previous years 262-241, they hammered the NL 154-98.
National League apologists will blame the designated hitter, more favorable matchups for their counterparts or the weather, but the fact remains over the last six years they are 671-840, .440 win percentage.
Since 2005, the NL has three teams with winning records, Colorado (45-37), Florida (43-41) and St. Louis (43-41). Only the first two have shown a profit to sports bettors (the Cardinals are -0- ), though Washington’s 43-47 mark has yielded +10.91 units of profit, primarily as underdog. Over the last five seasons, a NL diehard would have had to file for bankruptcy on straight bets, losing -160.12 units.
The Detroit Tigers are 37-17 (+17.6) against the NL and they’ve put together such a fine record primarily because of offense, being second in scoring (5.4 runs per game) and batting average (.294).
It will be worth watching to see the Los Angeles Angels perform. They have been among the top teams in the majors the last few seasons and that is also reflected in top interleague record of 38-16 (+18.6). With neither the hitting nor pitching up to previous standards, will that show in the Halos record vs. the National League this time around?
Boston and Minnesota have been padding their records for years against the NL and are financially dependable, with the Red Sox 38-20 (+9) and Twins 37-17 (+17.35). Minnesota pitching has really locked down NL hitters, with them totaling 3.3 RPG.
One AL club that has been under the radar is Kansas City with their 31-23 record (+11). The Royals could do some damage against the Rockies at home, having won six of eight and averaging double digit hits in that span.
The San Diego Padres are one of gigantic surprises of the 2010 season, being in first place in the NL West. If the Padres have aspirations of staying in that same location, they have to clean up their act versus the AL. The Friars might need prayers to improve baseball’s most putrid interleague record at 14-34.
One of the most befuddling NL teams when it comes to interleague action is the Los Angeles Dodgers (19-29, -12.25). Granted, part of their failures have come at the hands of the team down the road in Anaheim, nonetheless they have been a consistent loser for some time and enter this year’s foray playing well, but without all of their offensive weapons.
The one ray of sunshine for the NL has been the Cleveland Indians at 20-34 (-24.2). This year a few teams from the NL East, Pittsburgh and in-state rival Cincinnati will be able to take their shots against a team that is far removed from almost being in the World Series just a few seasons ago.
Now, here are some Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider this weekend.
<b><i>ATLANTA at PITTSBURGH</b></i>
<li>PITTSBURGH is 13-45 (-32.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.2, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 4*)
<b><i>CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND</b></i>
<li>CLEVELAND is 8-19 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.6, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>BOSTON at PHILADELPHIA</b></i>
<li>PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER (+13.3 Units) at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>BALTIMORE at WASHINGTON</b></i>
<li>WASHINGTON is 29-14 (+17.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.4, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>NY YANKEES at NY METS</b></i>
<li>NY METS are 17-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NY METS 4.2, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>TAMPA BAY at HOUSTON</b></i>
<li>TAMPA BAY is 20-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.6, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>CHICAGO CUBS at TEXAS</b></i>
<li>CHICAGO CUBS are 9-25 (-16.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>FLORIDA at CHI WHITE SOX</b></i>
<li>FLORIDA is 30-18 (+11.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>COLORADO at KANSAS CITY</b></i>
<li>KANSAS CITY is 14-25 (-14.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.6, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>MILWAUKEE at MINNESOTA</b></i>
<li>MINNESOTA is 28-13 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better since 1997. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.2, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>LA ANGELS at ST LOUIS</b></i>
<li>ST LOUIS is 37-16 UNDER (+18.9 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ST LOUIS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)
<b><i>TORONTO at ARIZONA</b></i>
<li>ARIZONA is 38-62 (-24.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.4, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>SAN FRANCISCO at OAKLAND</b></i>
<li>SAN FRANCISCO is 52-32 UNDER (+15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>DETROIT at LA DODGERS</b></i>
<li>LA DODGERS are 37-16 (+19.0 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 1*)
<b><i>SAN DIEGO at SEATTLE</b></i>
<li>SEATTLE is 27-10 UNDER (+15.6 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.5, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 2*)